About

I’m Danial Hazarika. I studied math and economics at UC San Diego and built insurance pricing models at Farmers Insurance. Since then I’ve spent about fifteen years in go-to-market at software companies, including Checkr, where I was an early employee, and Matterport.

Most days, a few macro events or news stories account for most of the price moves. For each one, I write down what the market is assuming, then check that assumption against second-order data: the numbers that would have to move if the assumption were true, like inflation expectations, Treasury auction demand, credit spreads or export volumes. Usually they back the price. When they don’t, it’s because the market has misread the details of the event. The gaps worth acting on have something building behind them that should push the price back toward the data, like a record short position or a supply shortfall that buyers can’t cover for long. From there I look for the companies most exposed to the misreading, rule out any with problems of their own, and only then decide where to get in. Every position starts with a written condition that would prove it wrong.

This site is where I publish that research. When the work needs software, I build it, mostly with AI coding tools, and write it up under Projects.

Nothing here is investment advice.