Writing

Seat-Based Software Grows With Hiring, and Hiring Has Stopped↗

The software slowdown is real, and so are the loan losses. The explanation most people have settled on, that AI is replacing the products, doesn't fit the data nearly as well as a simpler one: seat-based software tracks white-collar hiring, and hiring stopped.

Why Retail Investors and Credit Markets Are Reading the AI Selloff Differently↗

During October's chip selloff, retail traders bought the dip because nobody had cancelled any orders. Credit markets were pricing a different risk: whether the companies building AI data centers can keep borrowing to pay for them.